Population growth

In biology or human geography, population growth is the increase in the number of individuals in a population.

History

Population began growing rapidly in the Western world early in the industrial revolution of the late 18th century. The reasons for the "Modern Rise of Population" were particularly investigated by the British health scientist Thomas McKeown (1912-1988).

By the mid 20th century population growth in most of the Western World had leveled off while developing nations like China and India were experiencing population explosions. A theory of global overpopulation grew during this era, in part the result of the Post-World War II "Baby Boom," that saw a spike in population growth. By the middle of the 1960s, growth rates had peaked and had begun to steadily decline, by the turn of the millennium, many developed countries were beginning to see population decline as birthrates fell faster than the mortality rate. The worst cases of this were seen in Germany, Russia, Korea, and Japan.

21st Century Labor Shortage

A consequence of the reduced growth rate was an imbalance between the size of generations with respect to retirees and the working population, leading to a shortage of labor in the mid 2020s that impacted the entire developed world.

A consequence of urbanization, low birth rates stemmed from a society's transition to post-agrarianism. In agrarian and low-level industrial societies, children were treated as an economic asset necessary for supporting the working population while young and large families led to multiple sources of income. Additionally, agrarian and industrial societies often lack the capital for a robust social-welfare system, thus larger families could more easily support parents and grandparents in old age. Urban, post-agrarian societies do not require such a readily available source of unskilled labor, and in fact the cost of raising a child goes up exponentially with a society's requirements for success in life. Thus children in post-agrarian societies are the height of conspicuous consumption, as they hinder the productivity of workers, reduce the upward momentum of careers, and drain significant economic assets with no possibility of making up the difference until they are well into their 20s. Thus, Urbanization incentivises people to have fewer, if any, children.

By the 2020s, urbanization had reached a tipping point where the world entered a transitional period in which the older generations had not yet died, leaving a relatively small number of workers supporting a very large group of retirees. This was made more pronounced due to the development of longevity and life extension technologies in developed nations. The Market Crash of 2027 was essentially a result of this transitional period, as the market could not meet demand and the working age population could not be productive enough to pay off the debts incurred by the older generation, leading to a major economic dislocation, ultimately resolved by automation and immigration policies adopted in the late 2020s and 2030s.

List

Population (in thousands)

Country/dependent territory	2020	2030	2040	2050	2060	2070	2080	2090	2100
Total	7,734,581	8,477,475	9,134,735	9,704,191	10,165,231	10,530,831	10,821,289	11,041,445	11,200,627
Afghanistan	36,443	43,852	50,602	55,955	59,619	61,507	61,518	60,007	57,638
Albania	2,935	2,954	2,855	2,710	2,554	2,370	2,161	1,940	1,755
Algeria	43,008	48,274	52,496	56,461	59,183	60,454	61,115	61,422	61,060
Andorra	70	71	73	72	69	66	63	62	60
Angola	29,245	39,351	51,581	65,473	80,565	96,196	111,604	126,014	138,738
Anguilla	15	16	16	15	14	14	13	12	11
Antigua and Barbuda	96	105	111	114	116	117	117	115	114
Argentina	45,517	49,365	52,699	55,445	57,470	58,646	59,100	59,042	58,572
Armenia	3,038	2,993	2,879	2,729	2,542	2,335	2,124	1,942	1,793
Aruba	105	107	106	102	98	95	92	88	84
Australia	25,598	28,482	31,032	33,496	35,780	37,788	39,556	41,078	42,389
Austria	8,656	8,844	8,894	8,846	8,716	8,578	8,464	8,377	8,335
Azerbaijan	10,241	10,727	10,961	10,963	10,749	10,457	10,142	9,883	9,636
Bahamas	410	446	471	489	500	505	505	502	498
Bahrain	1,486	1,642	1,759	1,822	1,834	1,805	1,746	1,674	1,602
Bangladesh	170,467	186,460	197,134	202,209	201,942	197,165	189,317	179,711	169,541
Barbados	288	290	288	282	275	271	267	263	259
Belarus	9,365	8,977	8,513	8,125	7,757	7,416	7,183	7,046	6,916
Belgium	11,634	12,019	12,315	12,527	12,652	12,772	12,923	13,076	13,210
Belize	398	472	535	588	629	656	670	676	677
Benin	12,361	15,593	19,050	22,549	25,946	29,070	31,756	33,915	35,544
Bermuda	61	59	57	54	50	48	46	44	42
Bhutan	817	886	929	950	948	922	881	836	793
Bolivia	11,548	13,177	14,679	15,963	16,978	17,676	18,066	18,199	18,118
Bosnia	3,758	3,584	3,340	3,069	2,793	2,521	2,271	2,071	1,919
Botswana	2,460	2,817	3,126	3,389	3,573	3,674	3,719	3,720	3,681
Brazil	215,997	228,663	236,015	238,270	236,014	229,664	220,413	210,255	200,305
Template:Country data Virgin Islands	33	35	37	38	38	38	37	37	36
Template:Country data Brunei	450	496	528	546	549	538	522	505	489
Template:Country data Bulgaria	6,884	6,300	5,691	5,154	4,645	4,186	3,846	3,611	3,406
Template:Country data Burkina Faso	20,861	27,244	34,695	42,789	51,221	59,648	67,641	74,818	80,990
Template:Country data Burundi	13,126	17,357	22,505	28,668	35,235	42,249	49,450	56,315	62,662
Template:Country data Cambodia	16,809	18,991	20,939	22,545	23,656	24,315	24,485	24,316	23,928
Template:Country data Cameroon	26,333	32,947	40,398	48,362	56,430	64,222	71,320	77,448	82,382
Canada	37,600	40,390	42,479	44,136	45,534	46,841	47,955	48,865	49,668
Template:Country data Cape Verde	553	614	667	707	730	735	724	704	680
Template:Country data Caribbean Netherlands	26	28	29	30	30	31	31	31	32
Template:Country data Cayman Islands	64	71	77	82	85	90	94	97	99
Template:Country data Central African Republic	5,409	6,490	7,623	8,782	9,874	10,815	11,572	12,142	12,515
Template:Country data Chad	16,431	21,946	28,247	35,131	42,355	49,642	56,664	63,137	68,927
Chile	18,842	20,250	21,142	21,601	21,662	21,412	20,956	20,348	19,744
China	1,402,848	1,415,545	1,394,715	1,348,056	1,276,757	1,197,533	1,122,569	1,055,073	1,004,392
Colombia	50,229	53,175	54,723	54,927	54,073	52,451	50,245	47,765	45,321
Template:Country data Comoros	883	1,081	1,290	1,502	1,705	1,892	2,058	2,197	2,307
Template:Country data Cook Islands	21	23	23	24	24	23	23	22	21
Costa Rica||5,044||5,413||5,650||5,759||5,746||5,635||5,446||5,214||4,993
Croatia||4,162||3,977||3,771||3,554||3,333||3,118||2,923||2,757||2,615
Cuba	11,366	11,237	10,909	10,339	9,573	8,795	8,162	7,591	7,103
Curaçao||164||175||183||189||194||199||204||206||208
Cyprus||1,218||1,300||1,359||1,402||1,425||1,425||1,410||1,395||1,386
Czech Republic	10,573	10,461	10,194	9,965	9,672	9,286	9,007	8,876	8,774
Template:Country data Democratic Republic of the Congo	90,169	120,304	155,794	195,277	237,217	279,644	320,393	357,191	388,733
Denmark	5,776	6,003	6,173	6,299	6,430	6,568	6,690	6,773	6,838
Djibouti	947	1,054	1,133	1,186	1,212	1,210	1,189	1,161	1,126
Dominica	74	76	76	74	71	67	62	57	52
Hispaniola	11,107	12,087	12,819	13,238	13,377	13,288	13,005	12,567	12,027
East Timor||1,315||1,577||1,856||2,162||2,448||2,709||2,940||3,117||3,234
Ecuador	17,338	19,563	21,484	23,013	24,108	24,767	25,006	24,881	24,499
Egypt	100,518	117,102	134,428	151,111	165,322	177,557	187,609	195,518	200,802
Template:Country data El Salvador	6,231	6,408	6,476	6,390	6,183	5,855	5,417	4,911	4,420
Template:Country data Equatorial Guinea	971	1,238	1,521	1,816	2,113	2,390	2,634	2,834	2,984
Template:Country data Eritrea	5,892	7,311	8,870	10,421	11,845	13,122	14,190	15,020	15,616
Estonia	1,295	1,243	1,183	1,129	1,072	1,014	966	932	904
Template:Country data Ethiopia	111,971	138,297	164,270	188,455	209,459	225,774	236,555	241,853	242,644
Template:Country data Falkland	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Template:Country data Faroe Islands	49	50	52	52	52	53	53	53	52
Template:Country data Fiji	915	940	943	924	890	847	799	749	696
Template:Country data Finland	5,585	5,706	5,739	5,752	5,783	5,821	5,844	5,853	5,857
	65,720	68,007	69,931	71,137	72,061	73,109	74,259	75,245	75,998
Template:Country data French Guiana (France)	304	381	463	546	626	703	775	838	891
Polynesia	296	313	325	330	331	326	317	307	297
Template:Country data Gabon	1,917	2,321	2,743	3,164	3,551	3,882	4,148	4,343	4,466
Template:Country data Georgia	3,977	3,868	3,680	3,483	3,247	2,992	2,772	2,593	2,438
Template:Country data Germany	80,392	79,294	77,300	74,513	71,391	68,843	66,634	64,690	63,244
Template:Country data Ghana	30,530	36,865	43,454	50,071	56,175	61,686	66,462	70,222	73,033
Template:Country data Gibraltar	33	33	33	32	31	30	30	29	28
Template:Country data Greece	10,825	10,480	10,124	9,705	9,135	8,540	8,063	7,706	7,393
Greenland	56	57	55	52	50	48	46	43	41
Template:Country data Grenada	109	112	112	110	105	98	89	80	72
Template:Country data Guadeloupe	478	491	500	498	485	473	463	452	437
Template:Country data flag	180	200	216	228	236	242	245	244	242
Template:Country data Guatemala	18,015	21,424	24,730	27,754	30,337	32,344	33,742	34,539	34,812
Template:Country data Guinea	14,355	18,276	22,700	27,486	32,411	37,242	41,723	45,702	49,049
Template:Country data Guinea-Bissau	2,068	2,541	3,045	3,564	4,061	4,518	4,919	5,246	5,489
Guyana	787	821	824	806	783	749	699	645	595
Template:Country data Haiti	11,378	12,578	13,534	14,189	14,523	14,552	14,338	13,981	13,544
Honduras	8,651	9,737	10,607	11,217	11,576	11,662	11,481	11,106	10,646
Template:Country data Hong Kong	7,557	7,951	8,107	8,148	8,109	7,991	7,887	7,883	7,924
Hungary	9,685	9,275	8,784	8,318	7,865	7,400	7,021	6,742	6,506
Iceland	342	364	380	389	393	394	393	389	384
India	1,388,859	1,527,658	1,633,728	1,705,333	1,745,182	1,753,604	1,737,150	1,704,073	1,659,786
Indonesia	271,857	274,482	281,439	288,237	286,038	280,116	271,864	260,316	242,648
Iran	83,424	88,559	91,205	92,219	89,617	84,217	78,601	73,941	69,637
Template:Country data Iraq	41,972	54,071	68,127	83,652	99,958	116,776	133,507	149,428	163,905
Ireland	4,874	5,204	5,519	5,789	5,943	6,050	6,170	6,293	6,372
Template:Country data Isle of Man	91	96	101	104	107	109	111	113	114
Israel	8,718	9,998	11,301	12,610	13,808	14,873	15,833	16,655	17,285
Template:Country data Italy	59,741	59,100	58,078	56,513	54,387	52,346	51,067	50,316	49,647
Template:Country data Ivory Coast	25,566	32,143	39,882	48,797	58,717	69,342	80,285	91,065	101,154
Jamaica	2,840	2,867	2,811	2,710	2,558	2,362	2,139	1,910	1,704
Japan	125,039	120,127	113,788	107,411	101,440	95,135	89,871	86,108	83,175
Template:Country data Jordan	8,167	9,109	10,492	11,717	12,644	13,335	13,835	14,105	14,147
Kazakhstan	18,616	20,072	21,265	22,447	23,282	23,814	24,325	24,693	24,712
Template:Country data Kenya	52,187	65,412	80,091	95,505	110,757	125,137	137,988	148,681	156,856
Template:Country data Kiribati	122	142	159	178	195	210	224	235	244
Template:Country data Kuwait	4,317	4,987	5,499	5,924	6,193	6,314	6,394	6,462	6,484
Kyrgyzstan	6,384	7,097	7,713	8,248	8,618	8,854	9,009	9,085	9,046
Laos	7,398	8,489	9,421	10,172	10,673	10,914	10,910	10,717	10,411
Latvia	1,919	1,806	1,692	1,593	1,504	1,423	1,358	1,315	1,278
Lebanon	5,891	5,292	5,517	5,610	5,629	5,517	5,273	4,988	4,741
Template:Country data Lesotho	2,258	2,486	2,728	2,987	3,210	3,368	3,472	3,531	3,548
Template:Country data Liberia	5,091	6,414	7,892	9,436	10,992	12,495	13,863	15,032	15,977
Template:Country data Liechtenstein	39	41	42	43	44	44	45	46	47
Lithuania	2,795	2,655	2,505	2,375	2,272	2,181	2,107	2,056	2,013
Template:Country data Luxembourg	605	678	743	803	858	907	952	993	1,030
Template:Country data Libya	6,700	7,418	7,980	8,375	8,516	8,515	8,476	8,360	8,144
Template:Country data Macau	634	720	784	838	886	923	952	984	1,023
Template:Country data Macedonia	2,088	2,078	2,021	1,938	1,846	1,742	1,641	1,556	1,487
Madagascar	27,799	35,960	45,177	55,294	65,972	76,740	87,187	96,877	105,499
Template:Country data Malawi	20,022	26,584	34,360	43,155	52,546	62,024	71,182	79,657	87,056
Template:Country data Malaysia	32,374	36,107	38,853	40,725	41,995	42,418	42,059	41,437	40,778
Template:Country data Maldives	393	437	469	494	503	497	481	459	438
Template:Country data Mali	20,457	27,370	35,854	45,404	55,560	65,910	75,944	85,085	92,981
Template:Country data Malta	423	428	423	411	400	387	372	358	348
Template:Country data Marshall Islands	53	56	62	67	69	73	76	76	75
Template:Country data Martinique	395	391	380	358	336	321	312	302	289
Template:Country data Mauritania	4,573	5,666	6,844	8,049	9,242	10,386	11,428	12,323	13,059
Template:Country data Mauritius	1,291	1,310	1,295	1,249	1,194	1,136	1,071	1,007	952
Template:Country data Mayotte	273	344	421	497	567	629	682	724	752
Mexico	134,837	148,133	157,762	163,754	166,111	164,969	161,119	155,266	148,404
Micronesia	108	118	125	129	132	131	127	121	116
Template:Country data Moldova	4,021	3,839	3,557	3,243	2,909	2,555	2,246	2,024	1,856
Template:Country data Monaco	38	40	42	44	46	48	51	53	55
Template:Country data Mongolia	3,179	3,519	3,785	4,028	4,218	4,330	4,409	4,455	4,487
Template:Country data Montenegro	626	618	600	574	547	518	489	462	437
Template:Country data Montserrat	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Template:Country data Morocco	36,444	39,787	42,148	43,696	44,364	44,184	43,414	42,298	40,888
Template:Country data Mozambique	31,993	41,437	52,777	65,544	79,139	92,783	105,777	117,539	127,648
Template:Country data Myanmar	56,242	60,242	62,804	63,575	63,171	61,990	60,122	57,956	56,026
Template:Country data Namibia	2,731	3,272	3,805	4,322	4,780	5,156	5,440	5,631	5,730
Template:Country data Nauru	10	11	11	11	10	10	9	9	9
Template:Country data Nepal	30,184	33,104	35,027	36,159	36,439	35,797	34,283	32,110	29,677
Template:Country data Netherlands	17,185	17,605	17,738	17,602	17,435	17,371	17,358	17,302	17,220
Template:Country data New Caledonia	280	311	339	363	383	399	409	416	419
New Zealand	4,730	5,103	5,395	5,607	5,762	5,899	6,016	6,079	6,094
Nicaragua	6,418	7,033	7,537	7,863	8,006	7,958	7,730	7,386	6,996
Template:Country data Niger	24,315	35,966	51,878	72,238	96,461	123,628	152,492	181,549	209,334
Template:Country data Nigeria	206,831	262,599	327,406	398,508	473,123	548,863	622,731	691,183	752,247
Template:Country data Niue	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Template:Country data North Korea	25,763	26,701	27,030	26,907	26,582	26,205	25,783	25,333	24,842
Template:Country data Northern Mariana Islands	56	56	55	51	45	40	36	32	29
Norway	5,494	5,945	6,321	6,658	6,961	7,222	7,462	7,667	7,845
Template:Country data Oman	4,816	5,238	5,507	5,844	6,070	6,092	6,023	5,909	5,751
Template:Country data Pakistan	208,437	244,916	278,987	309,640	332,978	349,490	359,782	364,284	364,283
Template:Country data Palau	22	25	27	28	29	29	30	30	29
Template:Country data Palestine	5,333	6,765	8,259	9,791	11,273	12,628	13,804	14,776	15,516
Template:Country data Panama	4,231	4,781	5,238	5,599	5,854	6,006	6,074	6,073	6,012
Template:Country data Papua New Guinea	8,413	10,057	11,699	13,240	14,634	15,831	16,780	17,475	17,951
Paraguay	7,067	7,845	8,458	8,895	9,162	9,234	9,126	8,915	8,665
Peru	33,317	36,855	39,754	41,899	43,196	43,672	43,432	42,665	41,557
Template:Country data Philippines	108,436	123,575	137,020	148,260	157,074	163,318	167,016	168,609	168,618
Poland	38,407	37,207	35,286	33,136	30,827	28,245	25,732	23,783	22,289
Portugal	10,161	9,845	9,576	9,216	8,752	8,295	7,934	7,661	7,407
Puerto Rico	3,675	3,638	3,536	3,367	3,155	2,916	2,667	2,425	2,212
Template:Country data Qatar	2,452	2,781	3,013	3,205	3,332	3,381	3,352	3,262	3,170
Template:Country data Republic of the Congo	5,263	6,790	8,647	10,732	12,979	15,339	17,702	19,964	22,015
Romania	18,848	17,639	16,449	15,207	13,932	12,815	11,983	11,309	10,700
Russia	142,898	138,652	132,892	128,599	124,604	120,728	118,741	118,281	117,445
Template:Country data Rwanda	12,997	15,785	18,644	21,187	23,222	24,714	25,576	25,873	25,692
Template:Country data Réunion	892	947	981	989	976	956	935	906	870
Template:Country data Saint Helena	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3
Template:Country data Saint Kitts and Nevis	58	63	66	68	68	67	66	65	63
Template:Country data Saint Lucia	192	202	207	207	203	197	188	178	168
Template:Country data Saint Pierre and Miquelon	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Template:Country data Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	111	112	112	109	104	98	91	84	77
Template:Country data Samoa	199	210	228	241	249	258	264	265	262
Template:Country data San Marino	32	33	33	33	32	31	31	30	30
Template:Country data São Tomé and Príncipe	211	256	305	353	399	442	480	512	538
Template:Country data Saudi Arabia	34,366	39,132	43,136	46,059	47,686	48,453	48,722	48,427	47,586
Template:Country data Senegal	17,487	22,802	29,086	36,223	43,835	51,782	59,886	67,762	75,042
Template:Country data Serbia	8,674	8,281	7,817	7,331	6,870	6,423	6,007	5,641	5,334
Template:Country data Seychelles	99	101	101	100	96	92	88	84	81
Template:Country data Sierra Leone	7,160	8,598	10,041	11,392	12,562	13,484	14,105	14,422	14,489
Template:Country data Singapore	6,007	6,418	6,647	6,681	6,561	6,360	6,116	5,859	5,593
Template:Country data Sint Maarten	41	46	49	52	55	57	59	61	63
Slovakia	5,435	5,353	5,136	4,892	4,628	4,322	4,056	3,876	3,732
Slovenia	2,075	2,054	2,003	1,942	1,865	1,786	1,733	1,709	1,693
Solomon Islands	640	757	878	992	1,095	1,187	1,262	1,316	1,354
Somalia	12,423	16,493	21,388	27,030	33,285	39,835	46,412	52,670	58,311
South Africa	56,669	60,034	63,001	65,540	67,183	67,865	67,703	66,920	65,696
South Korea	51,251	52,519	52,398	50,593	47,926	45,101	42,359	40,101	38,504
South Sudan	14,122	17,810	21,744	25,855	29,941	33,726	37,029	39,729	41,752
Spain	46,194	45,920	45,647	44,840	43,114	41,102	39,730	39,044	38,337
Sri Lanka	21,157	21,536	21,446	20,836	19,824	18,672	17,450	16,158	14,857
Sudan	45,308	56,443	68,311	80,284	92,015	102,980	112,636	120,777	127,328
Suriname	565	599	619	624	620	608	591	570	548
Swaziland	1,366	1,507	1,648	1,792	1,915	2,005	2,059	2,082	2,082
Sweden	10,120	10,766	11,290	11,881	12,463	12,990	13,525	14,015	14,470
Switzerland	8,654	9,223	9,660	10,019	10,304	10,543	10,775	11,011	11,245
Syria	20,994	28,647	32,070	34,902	36,958	38,167	38,703	38,667	38,098
Tajikistan	9,419	11,102	12,685	14,288	15,577	16,657	17,546	18,157	18,559
Tanzania	62,267	82,927	108,174	137,136	168,831	202,342	236,225	268,963	299,133
Thailand	68,581	68,250	66,190	62,452	57,698	52,956	48,674	44,882	41,604
Gambia	2,326	3,105	4,010	4,981	5,954	6,878	7,705	8,385	8,896
Togo	8,294	10,489	12,991	15,681	18,434	21,163	23,728	25,993	27,873
Tokelau	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Tonga	111	121	132	140	146	153	157	159	159
Trinidad and Tobago	1,378	1,372	1,341	1,291	1,223	1,150	1,087	1,033	984
Tunisia	11,835	12,686	13,166	13,476	13,530	13,333	13,072	12,820	12,494
Turkey	82,256	87,717	92,744	95,819	96,856	96,043	93,973	91,197	87,983
Turkmenistan	5,685	6,160	6,432	6,555	6,514	6,337	6,104	5,857	5,606
Turks and Caicos Islands	37	42	45	48	49	51	51	52	52
Tuvalu	10	11	11	11	11	12	11	11	11
Uganda	45,856	61,929	80,904	101,873	124,029	146,276	167,483	186,650	202,868
Ukraine	43,679	40,892	37,818	35,117	32,542	30,149	28,492	27,415	26,857
United Arab Emirates	9,822	10,977	11,995	12,789	13,283	13,567	13,619	13,480	13,389
United Kingdom	66,700	70,113	72,840	75,361	77,255	78,775	80,255	81,434	82,370
United States	333,546	355,765	373,767	388,865	403,504	418,014	430,628	441,154	450,385
Uruguay	3,495	3,596	3,653	3,667	3,642	3,579	3,486	3,374	3,258
Uzbekistan	31,767	34,397	36,168	37,126	36,953	36,111	34,924	33,522	32,077
Vanuatu	294	354	416	476	531	580	621	654	677
Vatican City	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Venezuela	33,116	36,673	39,513	41,562	42,847	43,442	43,401	42,841	41,927
Vietnam	98,157	105,220	109,925	112,783	113,233	111,875	109,677	107,215	105,076
Wallis and Futuna	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	12	12
Western Sahara	631	738	828	901	955	992	1,020	1,039	1,047
Yemen	30,030	36,335	42,211	47,170	50,657	52,443	52,851	52,244	50,826
Zambia	18,882	25,313	33,371	42,975	53,885	65,870	78,652	91,808	104,869
Zimbabwe	17,471	21,353	25,510	29,615	33,146	35,969	38,113	39,547	40,263